Confirmation Bias
Definition
Confirmation bias, also known as myside bias, is a psychological phenomenon where individuals tend to favor information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs or values. It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Cognitive biases such as confirmation bias contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence.
History
The term "confirmation bias" was coined by English psychologist Peter Wason. In his research conducted in the 1960s, Wason conducted experiments known as Wason's rule discovery test which demonstrated that people are biased towards confirming their existing beliefs, rather than disconfirming them or testing other hypotheses.
Types of Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias can be divided into three types: Biased search for information, biased interpretation of this information, and biased memory recall.
Biased Search for Information
This type of confirmation bias refers to our tendency to test hypotheses or seek evidence that confirms our existing beliefs and assumptions, while neglecting to seek potentially disconfirming evidence.
Biased Interpretation
Biased interpretation involves the tendency to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting our existing beliefs or assumptions. This can often lead to a distortion of evidence, and can contribute to overconfidence in our beliefs.
Biased Memory Recall
Biased memory recall, or selective recall, refers to the tendency to remember selectively what supports our beliefs and forget that which does not. This can result in a skewed perception of reality and further entrench our existing beliefs.
Mechanisms
Confirmation bias is a result of automatic, unconscious mental processes that are part of the human cognitive system. These include heuristics, such as the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic, and cognitive dissonance reduction.
Heuristics
Heuristics are mental shortcuts that our brains use to simplify decision-making. The availability heuristic leads us to overestimate the likelihood of events that come easily to mind, which often means events that we have recently heard about or that are emotionally charged. The representativeness heuristic leads us to judge the probability of an event based on how similar it is to our stereotypes or expectations.
Cognitive Dissonance Reduction
Cognitive dissonance is the mental discomfort experienced when holding two or more contradictory beliefs, values, or attitudes. People are motivated to reduce this discomfort, and one way to do this is by seeking or interpreting evidence in ways that confirm our existing beliefs and thus resolve the contradiction.
Effects
Confirmation bias can have serious effects in many areas of life, including decision making, problem solving, interpersonal relationships, and social and political conflicts.
Decision Making
In decision making, confirmation bias can lead to faulty decision making because it can cause one to gather skewed information, ignore important details, and make decisions based on incomplete or inaccurate information.
Problem Solving
In problem solving, confirmation bias can prevent us from finding effective solutions because it can cause us to focus on solutions that confirm our existing beliefs and ignore potentially effective solutions that challenge these beliefs.
Interpersonal Relationships
In interpersonal relationships, confirmation bias can lead to misunderstandings and conflicts because it can cause us to interpret others' behavior in ways that confirm our existing beliefs about them, rather than considering alternative explanations for their behavior.
Social and Political Conflicts
In social and political conflicts, confirmation bias can contribute to polarization and deadlock because it can cause us to selectively gather and interpret information in ways that confirm our existing beliefs and ignore or dismiss information that challenges these beliefs.
Mitigating Confirmation Bias
While it is impossible to completely eliminate confirmation bias, there are strategies that can help mitigate its effects. These include seeking disconfirming evidence, considering alternative hypotheses, and using formal methods such as statistical reasoning and logic.
Seeking Disconfirming Evidence
One of the most effective ways to mitigate confirmation bias is to actively seek out evidence that disconfirms our existing beliefs. This can help us to challenge our beliefs and consider alternative perspectives.
Considering Alternative Hypotheses
Another effective strategy is to consider alternative hypotheses. This can help us to broaden our perspective and consider different possibilities.
Using Formal Methods
Formal methods such as statistical reasoning and logic can also help to mitigate confirmation bias. These methods can help us to evaluate evidence more objectively and make more accurate judgments.