Self-fulfilling prophecy
Definition
A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, due to the positive feedback between belief and behavior. The term was coined by sociologist Robert Merton in 1948, who defined it as a false definition of the situation evoking a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true. In other words, a self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to be true due to the behavior (including the act of predicting it) of the believer.
Mechanism
The mechanism of self-fulfilling prophecy is a cycle of beliefs and actions. When a person believes a certain prediction to be true, they may act in ways that cause the prediction to come true, even if the prediction was not originally going to come true. This is often due to the person's belief influencing their actions, which in turn influence the outcome.
For example, if a person believes that they will fail a test, they may not study for the test, which increases the likelihood that they will fail. This confirms their original belief that they would fail, even though their failure was caused by their lack of preparation, not by the test itself.
Types
There are two types of self-fulfilling prophecies: self-imposed and other-imposed.
A self-imposed prophecy is one that the belief-holder’s actions help to come true. For instance, if a student believes they are a poor student, they will act in ways that sabotage their success, such as not studying for tests or not asking for help when they don't understand a concept.
An other-imposed prophecy occurs when one person’s expectations govern another’s actions. For example, a teacher who believes a student is not capable may unconsciously behave in ways that discourage the student from performing well, such as providing less feedback or setting lower expectations.
In Sociology
In sociology, the concept of self-fulfilling prophecy is often associated with the Thomas Theorem, which states that "if men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". This theorem, formulated by W.I. Thomas and D.S. Thomas, highlights the social construction of reality and the power of perception in shaping social action.
Self-fulfilling prophecy is also a key concept in symbolic interactionism, a theoretical approach in sociology that emphasizes the role of symbols and language as core elements of all human interaction.
In Psychology
In psychology, self-fulfilling prophecy is closely related to the concept of expectancy, which suggests that a person's behavior is determined by how they expect the outcome to be. This is often studied in the context of teacher-student interactions, where teacher's expectations about a student's abilities can influence the student's performance.
The concept is also linked to the Pygmalion effect, a psychological phenomenon wherein high expectations lead to improved performance in a given area. Conversely, the Golem effect refers to the negative impact of low expectations.
In Economics
In economics, the concept of self-fulfilling prophecy is often used to explain financial crises. For instance, the belief that a bank may become insolvent can lead to a bank run, which in turn makes the bank insolvent. This is an example of a negative self-fulfilling prophecy.
On the other hand, positive self-fulfilling prophecies can also occur in economics. For example, if consumers believe that a company's products are high-quality, they may be more likely to purchase those products, which can lead to increased sales and success for the company.
Criticism
While the concept of self-fulfilling prophecy is widely accepted in various fields, it has also been subject to criticism. Some argue that the concept is overly deterministic, suggesting that individuals have no control over their own actions and are merely reacting to their beliefs or expectations. Others argue that the concept is too vague and lacks empirical support.
Despite these criticisms, the concept of self-fulfilling prophecy continues to be a valuable tool for understanding the complex interactions between beliefs, expectations, and behavior.